Storms Threaten US Coast: A developing tropical storm has an 80% chance of turning into a hurricane

Two weather systems over the Atlantic could potentially turn into the next major tropical storm or hurricane of the season, giving one of them an 80% chance of forming in the next five days.

While tropical depressions are difficult to predict at such an early stage, models have shown that if one of the systems gains power, it could fly to Bermuda and then potentially to the US east coast.

The potential storms come as the Atlantic hasn’t had a storm for all of August, marking it as one of the calmest periods in history in a month that typically produces the most storms and hurricanes.

One reason for the lack of storms can be attributed to the Sahara Desert in Africa, as dust from the desert is swept across the Atlantic, creating drier air that makes it harder for storms to form.

Dubbed the Saharan air layer, the dust mass is about two miles thick and one mile above Earth’s surface and is known for being responsible for stunning sunsets and sunrises as light reflects off the dust particles.

A weather system that formed over the Atlantic has an 80 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm by Friday

A weather system that formed over the Atlantic has an 80 percent chance of turning into a tropical storm by Friday

Much of this season's severe weather has been quelled by dust from the Sahara desert, which dries the air and makes storm formation difficult

Much of this season’s severe weather has been quelled by dust from the Sahara desert, which dries the air and makes storm formation difficult

The second system is now rolling off the coast of Africa, and while it's still a long way from the US mainland, it could potentially turn into a storm

The second system is now rolling off the coast of Africa, and while it’s still a long way from the US mainland, it could potentially turn into a storm

The first and closest weather system was reported a few hundred miles off the coast of the Lesser Antilles, a group of islands in the Caribbean Sea.

The system has produced disorganized showers and thunderstorms over a large area, according to the NHC’s tropical forecast for 8am.

“Although environmental conditions are only marginally supportive, gradual evolution of this system is expected over the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week,” said senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown.

The second system, which is much earlier in its development as it rolls off the coasts of Senegal and Gambia, could also gain strength as it swirls across the Atlantic.

The next tropical storm system is slated to be named Danielle, while the next after that will be named Earl, then Fiona, then Gaston, following the tradition of naming storms and hurricanes alphabetically.

The potential storms come as the Atlantic hasn’t had a storm for all of August, marking it as one of the calmest periods in history in a month that typically produces the most storms and hurricanes.

Dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa is being swept across the Atlantic Ocean, drying the air and making it difficult for storms to form

Dust from the Sahara Desert in Africa is being swept across the Atlantic Ocean, drying the air and making it difficult for storms to form

Hurricane Henri struck New England in August 2021. Pictured is the remnant of the storm in Milford, Connecticut on August 23, 2021

Hurricane Henri struck New England in August 2021. Pictured is the remnant of the storm in Milford, Connecticut on August 23, 2021

One meteorologist pointed out that by normal standards we should have had 8 named storms at this point, but only experienced three this year. If August ends without a named storm, it will be the first time since 1997.

This time last year the US endured Tropical Storm Fred, which struck Florida on August 16 and spawned 31 tornadoes from Georgia to Massachusetts, and Hurricane Henri, which struck New England on August 22 and inundated much of the coast.

Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, noted that it’s the first time since 1982 that there hasn’t been a single named storm anywhere in the Atlantic between July 3 and the penultimate week of August.

The phenomenon has occurred five more times since 1950, making such a long stretch of quiet until peak season an event that occurs roughly once a decade.

Still, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts six to 10 Atlantic hurricanes, compared to the norm of seven, and they can come quickly in September, when seawater is at its warmest.

“You don’t want people to let their guard down,” said Dan Pydynowski, Accuweather’s chief meteorologist. “Just because we haven’t had storms yet doesn’t mean we won’t have one.

“And it’s not necessarily the number of storms that matters. “It’s: will the storm hit the US, and if so, how strong will it be when it does?”

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11161121/Storms-threaten-coast-Tropical-storm-forming-80-chance-turning-hurricane.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490 Storms Threaten US Coast: A developing tropical storm has an 80% chance of turning into a hurricane

Emma Colton

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