The melting of the Greenland ice sheet will raise sea levels by more than 10 INCHES

The melting of the Greenland ice sheet will cause global sea levels to rise by more than 27cm – even if the whole world stops burning fossil fuels today, a new study warns.

Researchers from the National Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) examined measurements from two decades to predict the minimal ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet to date due to global warming.

Their results suggest that under the best possible scenario, the Greenland ice sheet will lose about 110 trillion tons of ice.

“In the foreseeable scenario that global warming will continue, the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise will continue to increase,” said Professor Jason Box, lead author of the study.

“If we take the extreme melt year of 2012 and consider it as a hypothetical average constant climate later this century, the caused mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet doubles to 78 cm [30 inches].’

The melting of the Greenland ice sheet will cause global sea levels to rise by more than 27cm - even if the whole world stops burning fossil fuels, a new study warns

The melting of the Greenland ice sheet will cause global sea levels to rise by more than 27cm – even if the whole world stops burning fossil fuels, a new study warns

Their results suggest that at best, at least 3.3 percent of the ice sheet will be lost, equivalent to 110 million tons of ice or a 10 inch (27 cm) rise in sea level.

Their results suggest that at best, at least 3.3 percent of the ice sheet will be lost, equivalent to 110 million tons of ice or a 10 inch (27 cm) rise in sea level.

What period are we looking at?

While previous studies used climate models to estimate sea-level rise, this is the first time researchers have made estimates based on measurements.

Unfortunately, this method has the disadvantage that it does not specify a time frame.

‘To get the number we have, we had to let go of the time factor in the calculation,’ added Professor Box.

“But our observations suggest that most of the sea-level rise caused will take place before the end of this century.”

In the study, the researchers looked at changes in the snow line — the boundary between areas that experienced net melt in the summer and areas that didn’t — of the Greenland ice sheet from 2000 to 2019.

Ice above the plate does not melt evenly, with ice at the edges melting fastest at lower elevations.

Higher up on the ice sheet, it’s too cold to melt even in summer.

The snow line is defined by the line where the top layer of winter snow does not melt away in summer but stays up and nourishes the ice sheet.

This line varies from year to year depending on weather conditions.

For example, a hot summer can push the line further up the ice sheet, while a colder year can push the line down toward the ice edges.

Snow that falls on the ice in winter will become new ice over time – unless it melts in summer.

For the ice sheet to be in equilibrium, the mass added must equal the mass lost.

While this is the case in a stable climate, a hot summer causes the layers of snow to be lost through melting.

Professor Jason Box collects ice samples that stand on exposed ice below the snowline of the Greenland Ice Sheet in western Greenland during the melting season

Professor Jason Box collects ice samples that stand on exposed ice below the snowline of the Greenland Ice Sheet in western Greenland during the melting season

“If we take the extreme melt year of 2012 and consider it as a hypothetical average constant climate later this century, the caused mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet doubles to 78 cm [30 inches]said Professor Box

“If we take the extreme melt year of 2012 and consider it as a hypothetical average constant climate later this century, the caused mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet doubles to 78 cm [30 inches]said Professor Box

This snow will then be missing from the mass balance for years and create an imbalance.

Using a rigorous glaciological theory, the researchers calculated the average snow line required to rebalance the ice sheet.

Their results suggest that in the best-case scenario, at least 3.3 percent of the ice sheet will be lost, equivalent to 110 million tons of ice, or a 10-inch (27 cm) rise in sea level.

‘That’s a very conservative minimum,’ Professor Box said.

“Realistically, that number will more than double this century.”

The researchers looked only at the Greenland ice sheet and did not account for sea level rise as a result of melting in Antarctica.

The glaciology team sets up an automatic weather station on the snow surface above the snow line during the melting season

The glaciology team sets up an automatic weather station on the snow surface above the snow line during the melting season

While previous studies have estimated sea-level rise using climate models, this is the first time researchers have made estimates based on measurements.

This radically different method has raised some eyebrows in the scientific community, according to Professor Box.

“The ice flow models are not ready in this area,” he explained. “This is a supplemental method for calculating mass loss that was previously lacking.”

Unfortunately, this method has the disadvantage that it does not specify a time frame.

‘To get the number we have, we had to let go of the time factor in the calculation,’ added Professor Box.

“But our observations suggest that most of the sea-level rise caused will take place before the end of this century.”

SEA LEVEL COULD RISE UP TO 4 FEET BY THE YEAR 2300

Global sea levels could rise by as much as 1.2 meters (4 feet) by 2300, even if we meet the 2015 Paris climate targets, scientists warn.

The long-term change is being driven by ice melt from Greenland to Antarctica that will redraw global shorelines.

Sea level rise is threatening cities from Shanghai to London, low-lying parts of Florida or Bangladesh, and entire nations like the Maldives.

It’s vital that we curb emissions as soon as possible to avoid an even bigger spike, a German-led team of researchers said in a new report.

The report predicts that sea levels will rise by 0.7 to 1.2 meters by 2300, even if nearly 200 nations fully meet the 2015 Paris Agreement targets.

Targets set in the agreements include reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by the second half of the century.

Sea levels will continue to rise because heat-trapping industrial gases already emitted will remain in the atmosphere and more ice will melt, it said.

In addition, water expands naturally when heated above four degrees Celsius (39.2 °F).

Every five-year delay in reaching the peak in global emissions beyond 2020 would mean an additional 20 centimeters (8 inches) of sea level rise by 2300.

“Sea level is often communicated as a really slow process that you can’t do much about… but the next 30 years are really important,” said lead author Dr. Matthias Mengel from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Potsdam. Germany.

None of the nearly 200 governments signing the Paris Accords are on track to fulfill their commitments.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-11157017/Melting-Greenland-Ice-Sheet-cause-sea-levels-rise-10-INCHES.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490 The melting of the Greenland ice sheet will raise sea levels by more than 10 INCHES

Andrew Kugle

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